According to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, just 37 percent of Americans believe President Obama will win reelection; 55 percent believe he will lose to the Republican nominee.
This is not great news for the president, not necessarily because Americans are psychic, but because expectations often shape reality.
In particular, a widespread belief that Obama will lose could widen the already problematic “enthusiasm gap“ for the president.
It’s a tricky balance for the White House. Many of the president’s natural supporters are not feeling especially fired up this time around – particularly compared to the white-hot intensity seen among Republicans.
The Obama campaign clearly believes they must do something to energize their base and create a sense of urgency.