With five days to go, both campaigns can make a convincing argument for why they will have the edge on Tuesday.

Team Obama says that the tide came in for Romney, but not high enough to carry him to an electoral victory in Ohio and the rest of the Rust Belt. A slew of polls that show Romney falling just short in this region make a powerful argument for the president’s closing theory of the race. Those polls provide fresh fodder for the establishment press narrative that holds that Obama will be re-elected.

Team Romney can argue just as convincingly that close is good enough for the Republican nominee. Romney’s advisers point to high voter intensity on the Republican side and a strong performance for the GOP nominee with several groups that were key to Obama’s 2008 victory. The Romney theory is that they have the edge in a race that goes down to the wire.