The political battle over raising the national debt ceiling may come sooner than expected.

“Based on financial data from Treasury, we estimate that the government will be unable to pay all of its bills as early as February 15, also known as the X Date,” said Steve Bell, senior director of the Economic Policy Project at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

After Feb. 15, $452 billion in scheduled payments — including IRS tax refunds and debt interest payments — are scheduled to go out. The government is only projected to receive $277 billion during that period.