A lot of new information and forecasts have become available in the last few weeks. USDA has updated forecasts of crop sector supply and demand for 2012/13 and forecasts for farm income. The semi-annual Cattle inventory report was also released, showing another decline in the sector which will influence livestock markets for at least the next year or two. There was a big report from USDA analyzing the outlook for Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine with forecasts out through 2021. The Congressional Budget Office released their initial 10 year baseline report for agriculture and USDA released their projections through 2022. These data and forecasts provide some interesting perspectives on the future for agriculture over the next several years.

USDA’s Agricultural Projections Through 2023

We start this discussion with some of the highlights from USDA’s annual 10 year forecast. Every year USDA releases a 10-year forecast ahead of their annual Outlook Conference that takes place in late February. For the outlook conference USDA may update some of the near-term numbers, but the longer term outlook generally remains as the background for agriculture. For this analysis, we look at both the near term and the long term projections included in the report.