With 30 million new people expected to enter the health-care system in 2014 under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, experts say a looming doctor shortage isn’t a chance—it’s a fact.

“These 30 million new patients have either not gone to the doctor or [have been] going to the emergency room so that is putting pressure into the system. You have a foundational supply and demand shift,” says Mitch Rothschild, CEO of Vitals, a consumer tool physician evaluation company.

He expects the shortage to hit the primary care physician (PCP) arena the hardest and explains that there is approximately one PCP for every 15,000 people in the U.S. but come 2020, there will be about 70,000 less doctors available to consumers as a direct result of the law.