To see how thoroughly the concept of ecosystem services — the economic analysis of the natural world’s intersection with human endeavors — is embedded in climate change research, check out this forecast from a group led by researchers at Duke University and the Environmental Defense Fund.

It examines the future of cattle ranching, an industry that is bound up with America’s self-image, thanks to Hollywood, pulp novels and Cormac McCarthy, through the lens of a climate-changed California landscape. It concludes that, whether the state’s climate becomes warmer and wetter or warmer and drier, it will be more expensive to raise cattle because there will be less forage to sustain the animals.