This is quite interesting. Trump will certainly be close either way. While no one else will even be halfway there.
Check it out:
About a month ago, after Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary and all of its delegates, we headlined a piece “The Hour is Growing Late to Stop Trump.” Well, the hour has grown later, and we have to ask the question: Has Trump been stopped?
Certainly not. And a look ahead at the remaining contests calls into question the ability of the other candidates, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, to prevent him from winning the requisite number of delegates to clinch or come close to clinching the Republican nomination.
The magic number is 1,237 delegates, and our own rough calculations show Trump just getting over the hump with 1,239. But that involves Trump winning the lion’s share of the delegates in places as diverse as Wisconsin, New York, Indiana, West Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Table 1 shows these projections, which represent our best guess as to the state of the race right now.
These projections are based off a few different factors, such as racial/ethnic demographics, voting history, religious populations, and regional primary voting so far, where available. The post-March 22 delegate starting point is based on The GreenPapers’ calculations.
In Wisconsin, Trump may benefit from a Cruz-Kasich split and also may hold the advantage in a number of congressional districts that have lower percentages of college graduates and lower median incomes. We see Kasich potentially winning a couple of districts with higher median incomes that performed strongly for Romney in the 2012 GOP primary. We also handed Cruz the heavily Republican Fifth District, as he has performed better among stalwart conservatives, and the Sixth District next door.
For upcoming Northeastern primaries, we used the primary vote in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont as a marker. We averaged the three candidates’ vote percentages from those states, then took the remaining vote (for the withdrawn candidates) and apportioned 50% of it to Kasich and 25% to both Cruz and Trump, resulting in Trump 47.5%, Kasich 35.0%, and Cruz 17.5%. In part, this was to see what would happen if Trump fell short of a majority in primaries outside of his home state of New York. In Connecticut, we said Trump would win every congressional district, but that Kasich would pick up six delegates via the state’s proportional method for allocating statewide delegates. Next door in Rhode Island, the heavily proportional statewide and district delegates work out to Trump winning eight of the 19 delegates in the Ocean State. In New York, we figured that Trump would get a slight home-state bump to win a majority statewide, and we also gave him a majority in about half the state’s districts, keeping him under in 14 seats to give Kasich 14 delegates from the Empire State. In Delaware, any Trump plurality would earn him all 16 delegates, which we foresee as likely in the First State. And in Pennsylvania, Kasich may give Trump a run for his money and do better than 35%, but we still see Trump as a slight favorite to win the 17 statewide delegates up for grabs on April 26.